Coding fun

I'm going to start doing TopCoder algorithm competitions again 'cause those were fun and I've lost some of those skills - I can tell because I did some practice problems and they were fun but I had more trouble with them than I remember. The problems seem to be about the same difficulty level they were a few years ago, which is pretty impressive. Also I started learning Python, 'cause why not.

Today would have been a great day for rejection therapy at Marymoor. Too bad weather is friggin' impossible. But I got in some running, walking, and ping-pong.

I made my second potato soup, turns out adding more butter and more cheese is a really strong play.

Other than that, I did mostly do-nothing stuff today. Recovery, I'm calling it. I don't know whether it was required but it felt like it. So starting tomorrow I'm back in full-fledged Improvement mode, after a week or two of wait-what-am-I-doing. I've got my list of Important Stuff and everything. Most important is choosing the first One Focus Area.

Today is Yesterday

Yesterday, Thursday the 21st, I took my takeaway to heart and canceled my commitment to the combo most arbitrary deadline, most cost item. So I'm not going to give my presentation at work until 2.5 weeks from now, now. This is great. I felt so freed up. Now to make sure I don't accidentally procrastinate. ;)

I've been enjoying my TAM9 necklace, but the bracelet seems to have better (more visible) results.

Meditation was all right, but not in the morning, and only for 15 minutes. I want to get back to the morning - my working hypothesis for some of my sleep-related issues in the last week or so is whoops I started drinking coffee during the day again. So I'm stopping caffeine again to see what that does, starting tomorrow which is today.

I used some of my confidence interval (credible interval) skills to estimate my next milestone's tasks. Excited to see how they end up compared to my estimates! My overall time estimate was super-close between two different methods: 50% confidence, call everything normal, versus 90% confidence, call everything log-normal. I did the two over two days, recreating even the tasks for the second one.

Too much stuff

Takeaway: committing to a lot of things that require work at the same time is well worth taking plenty of extra upfront time to avoid.

Presentation O'Clock

No meditation today. Got up late, now I'm super sleepy, also I discovered a part of me prefers consistency in writing this to consistency in meditation or possibly my behavior-executer-thing for writing this just works somewhat better. Tomorrow I'm back, promise.

I checked in some bugs against strange motivational opposition. And I had a long talk with Lara about the CSS presentation, which was very helpful. Down to busy-work now before presenting next Tuesday. Also, Eliezer's implicit Bayes' structure post was directly responsible for my most significant contribution to Microsoft. lulz

Frisbee was fun, I played well, and we crushed the other team, which is a novel result. I handled some, kinda badly, but without reservation.

I am confused by this: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/6q3/link_the_bayesian_argument_against_induction/

TAM9 3: The Tamining

Fast forward to back in Seattle: Having a question/goal in mind feels like a good idea for me when doing insight meditation. Maybe eventually it will artificially constrain, but for now it's very motivating. And there are so many questions! I used "what does the breath 'look' like going in and out in my abdomen rather than in and out of my nose?" today.

Rewind to Vegas: Notes from today! Here they are:
Hyman's Maxim: Before you try explaining something, first make sure that there's actually something to explain.
Guaranteed-return managed mutual funds are a scam.
skepticmoney.com
Common Sense on Mutual Funds by John C Bogle
PR - the art of getting media to spread your message for you, for free
You have a doctor? Have her write a blog post once a month, and fax it to the media. They need to know we're a source! Remove their trivial inconveniences. To be there at the right time, be there all the time.
younghipandconservative.com
Wikipedia! Tell others who we are, they can't find us

Negative affect correlates with motivation to ignore counterarguments
attitude/performance correlates with resistance to persuasion
usually: while "listening" we are evaluating others and thinking of how to dismantle their points. New form: speaker can't go until paraphrasing others' points to others' satisfaction
1. explore common ground
2. statement of listener's position
3. objective statement of speaker's positiong
4. thesis (and show willingness to accept something from listener's side)
- at any point, listener may object and require clarification/accuracy
"Rogerian"

it's irrational to ignore emotions
lack of emotional awareness is bad... Spock was irrational
specific examples inoke emotion, vague don't
find concrete, true examples that speak to shared values and make me care

sleightsofmind.com
motion - neurons for that type get overactivated (tired) and opposite direction don't
neurons actually get *surpressed* by higher cognition so we keep attention on spotlight
attention to meta is all that allows putting attention on *all* relevant areas

sound bite as poetry! dense information communication
activisim: include interests of people not-like-you. e.g. Vote - Education, Employment, Marriage law - Sex, reproduction, classism - etc. widening circles.
Diversity of tactics - militants good for beginning, overcoming activation energy, but they will and should become obsolete later. They move the acceptable-discussion window and make moderates less scary
objective -> audience -> message -> tactics

mental illness denial? counter with migraines

TAM9 2

Sad cat didn't set aside time for meditation today and so only got the incidental mindfulness during the day. Not good enough, kitty.

Here are notes from TAM day 2. Friendly PR directors are MAGIC
Sadie Crabtree:
How do we win?
1. What's the goal
2. Who do we need to talk to
3. What do we want them to do
4. Which values can we tap
5. What beliefs will be obstacles
6. What's the message and who delivers
2 Convince those who don't feel strongly not those strongly opposed or already supporting
3 Change behaviors of others, not their values. This also sets them up for cognitive dissonance.
4 Find shared values: honesty fairness feeling smart and respected feeling right and co fident about it not feeling cheated or taken in
5 Feeling control over circumstances, making sense of an irrational world, wanting to feel right and respected
6 Frames, and who is ot that will deliver the message? People trust people with whom they feel they share a common interest
Don't use: critical thinking, educate, skepticism, nonsense
Its not what you say that's important its what people hear

Campus groups - secular >> homeopathy
To measure something hard to measure that seems easily games, pick 20 ludicrous bit correlated things measure them and correctly add the evidence
PLACEBO read literature this is a panel of six folks who know what they're talking about at a skeptics conference and they all think placebos don't exist for non-mental phenomena in general
Regression to the mean
Use three arm tests to check placebos
Bias! Can't double blind placebo?
*Brainstorm all situations with subjective impressions as inputs
Placebo response changes subjects subjective self reported metrics eg pain nausea but not eg  olume of air breathed
Imagination is key to implanting memories
*Random reminder on designed schedule to want want desire desire etc instead of reward to ramp
Keep baby picture in wallet so it os returned
Carol tavris
Motivated cognition actually different brain activation
18.11 Pp 1947 1958 journal of cognitive neuroscience
Students who got self help that didn't improve their performance changed heir memories of how well they did beforehand so they thought the help did help
I.e. to change identity let yourself want to not identify with the characteristic
Anger - anonymity speed and lack of consequences. Can lw malw commenting take more time
Do NOT put people into a state of dissonance they will just side wih the.selves even more strongly
Exercise: how to instill a piece of identity then set up cognitive dissonance
*Childcare at skeptical (science?) conferences - RDSF sponsors now? Ask them

Phantom was awesome. First, it's good. Second, this production was good. Third, for me it has soooooo much nostalgia factor.

Also we're putting a solar sail into space!!

TAM9

Meditation comes after this post and before Penn's bacon donuts and rock & roll party today.
Here are my notes.
Whiteboards everywhere plzkthx
Why would their tactics work on us
9X10^21 / 10^22-10^24 stars
God will kill us makes them more or less threatening?
Set up testing station one minute
Singer!!!!!
6000 "Total" IQ what
Notice your confusion - of course they checked the electronics
Community of rationalists - mc called us this
Make sure that your question's a question!!!
George singing freaking amazing
Skepticism isn't just about being correct it's also about doing the right thing
 False patterns for pattern matching were far less costly than false negatives.
"Agenticity"
calc how egregiously they should be able to cherry pick, beforehand
There is a place for a magician in the lab whenever deceit could be involved. We deceive ourselves all the time. Is there a place for a cogsci bias consultant in the lab?
Straws plaster of Paris and a gerbil!
PZ sez 5 extinction events makes 6 data points 2 don't count as life was only aquatic and out of 4 the first three didn't result including intelligence so...
OMG Neil don't do the that's such a biiiiiiiiiig number thing
Phd is twice the evidence of scientist given phd that a person is not religious.

Also, harry potter was good. But I have been infiltrated, no single part was better than a certain shining moment in mor... :S