I got months and months out of flipping and spinning my mug as I walked down the hall to fill it with delectable coffee or water or whatever. Finally it's over. A moment's inattention and bam, now I have 5 pieces of a mug, only one of which would hold anything. Ah well... that was worth it.
I did a new thing with a Wits & Wagers question. Just once so far but it seems maybe good. I tried putting a distribution over possible values by figuring out my most likely models, then how likely it is each is approximately correct, then figuring out my backoff model. I think this helped me confront which pieces of my intuitions are overconfident, or rather which processes that take my intuitions to hard numbers give results similar to what overconfidence would.
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