I brainstormed a bunch of beliefs I hold <count> 30 actually, and then asked foreach what things the belief prohibited. I didn't take long, but instead brainstormed what they prohibited until getting 1-3 things for each belief - I think that's an important thing, since I want to practice seeing what my beliefs prohibit quickly and automatically, not after a period of focused thought. Then I went back and checked and found 7 I could actually just go test, 4 of which were Fermi calculations and 2 others of which I could and did test without much effort (that leaves 1: Tomorrow after work I will see if I can run 600 feet in 1 minute :D). Finally I did the 4 Fermi calculations which yielded:
- ~0 evidence in the model for or against buying a car being a good idea (which is some evidence for "buying a car is neutral EV")
- Quite a lot of evidence in the model for writing an app which assists modeling your revealed preferences as a decision utility being a good idea
- Quite a lot of evidence in the model that I should cut way back on playing Dominion online, by a factor of about 5 before it's EV neutral again.
- Quite a lot of evidence in the model that I should tentatively start up working through some of the exercises in Bayesian Data Analysis.